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| What are this week’s market risks or opportunities? |
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| The SOX (Wall Street's benchmark for chip stocks) nearly doubled this year and has spent the last few weeks going nowhere. |
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| This week it finally moved, hard in both directions. |
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| TSMC, Micron, SK Hynix, AMD, ASML, and AMAT all sold off together, down mid-to-high single digits at the worst of it, then ripped back just as hard in the days since. |
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| The easy read is to chase whichever direction feels loudest today, but that treats six stocks with almost nothing in common as if they were one trade. |
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| Analysts still rate every one of these six names Strong Buy. Our Fair Value models have already turned negative on most of them. The ratings haven't caught up yet. |
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| Either the ratings catch down to what the models are flagging, or the models are wrong and the price targets hold. |
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| The next earnings season likely decides which. Track it to monitor the moment this gap starts to close. |
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| Which trades should I consider? |
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| Put the six side by side and the split is obvious, even on a day when they're all moving the same direction. |
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When the group bounced, SK Hynix, the cheapest of the six, led the rebound. AMD, the most expensive, barely moved.
- SK Hynix: 12.6x forward P/E, up 683.8% over a year, the only name with positive fair value and analyst upside.
- Micron: 21.4x P/E, up 655.4%, barely stretched.
- TSMC: 25.6x P/E, still leaning cheaper than the rest.
- AMD: 184.6x P/E, fair value -29.8%.
- ASML: fair value -16.2%.
- AMAT: already trading below its own analyst target, and fair value is lower still.
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| SK Hynix is still cheap against what it's expected to earn. Micron isn't far behind it. The other four already priced in the good news twice. |
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| Should I consider this trade? |
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| SanDisk isn't part of that six-stock story so much as a test case for it. The six make and equip the chips that process AI workloads. SanDisk makes the flash memory that stores what they produce, riding the same AI buildout through a different layer of it. |
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| Back in February, ProPicks AI rotated out of the stock after a 189% gain. It flagged a 144.5x P/E and a run built on a supply squeeze, not demand growth. SanDisk went on to run another 176% before giving back as much as 25% of it this latest swing. It's still up 3,638% over the past year. |
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| Here's the tension that actually matters now: analysts keep raising their price targets on SanDisk, some as high as $3,250, even as our Fair Value models say the stock is already overvalued. |
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| That's the sector's gap, just louder inside a single stock: the target keeps climbing while the math underneath it says otherwise. |
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| That AI-datacenter demand pushing the other six is also what's kept NAND supply tight and hyperscalers ordering. The money is simply rotating away from the name that already had its run. |
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| Whether SanDisk is done is a less interesting question than which chip stock hasn't yet had its SanDisk moment. |
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| ProPicks AI's Tech Titans strategy is built to catch exactly that. |
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| Data correct to 09.07.2026 |
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